little bits of me: Do they have it right this time?

9.16.2004

Do they have it right this time?

There was a time not too long ago when Colin Powell, sitting before the UN Security Council, with George Tenet, former head of the CIA, sitting just behind him to add credence to his words, offered to the world images similar to these as evidence of Iraqi possession of WMD's. It was a chilling presentation.

About one year before Powell made his argument before the United Nations that it was imperative that Iraq be taken to task for this violation of UN resolutions, a National Intelligence Estimate was prepared for the White House, outlining in bold terms the danger that Iraq posed to the United States. The first NEI on Iraq to have been prepared since then was recently released to the White House and it draws a pessimistic view of the future for Iraq.

What should the world believe?

Colin Powell, on almost every point that he presented that day in the fall of 2003, was dead wrong. The satellite images he presented were explainable and for the most part relatively innocuous. Additionally, the National Intelligence Estimate of 2002 turned out also to be way off the mark and was missing important caveats. Probabilities were offered as certainties and although it wasn't necessarily wrong, it also wasn't necessarily right.

Which leads me to wonder if the situation in Iraq is really as bad as it appears in the latest estimates, and considering the US has 140,000 boots on the ground to gather intel it probably is as bad, if not worse, and is Iran as big a danger to the region as the latest intelligence purports it to be or are the images shown merely a mistaken identity of the latest Iranian distribution centre for Wal-Mart?

I wish I had an answer.
posted by jmd ¶ Thursday, September 16, 2004

Comments: Post a Comment

<< Home